so far so good on QID

intraday post | the QID remains above the uptrend line that i pointed out a couple days ago...

ACI and the upcoming downtrend line test

it looks like ACI will soon be testing the underside of a relatively long term downtrend line. i don't know much about the fundamentals of this sector, but could spring/summer be a good time to short coal? who knows - i'll be keeping an eye on the chart, price and volume, moving averages and this downtrend line.

X and steel

i noticed this chart over the weekend. check out the negative divergence between price and rsi, even at barely new highs... volume at these new highs is weak too. now today, monday, it gapped up at the opening. if volume is big today and x closes at new highs, that would be very bullish. volume sucks and/or it closes weak, keep an eye on it for short. also, there may be buyout rumors circulating in the steel sector in general.

s&p and trend line retracement test

the SPX is retracing to the underside of a relatively long term uptrend line (see red circle). will we see new highs here?

good time to watch QID

now seems like a good time to keep any eye on the QID. it has pulled back to the upside of the red downtrend line. it may or may not find support here. also, keep an eye on volume.

RVBD, price and volume, and when to cover or at least not be bearish anymore

intraday post

this chart of RVBD and the red box highlights consolidation (kinda the opposite of distribution) after a multiday fall and big volume capitulation. in the red box we see big volume without the price moving much. lots of shares are changing hands with almost equal buyers and sellers. this is usually a good sign to cover and wait for a low volume bounce to a critical resistance line. in the red box we also see a tag of the blue uptrend line - this provided support too. that's why i like trendlines - when things come together like this, which they often do, you can get a good idea about what is going to happen.

BOOM chart update

BOOM - there's not a whole lot to grip on to here - but that may just be me. others may see a whole lot more. i am thinking that maybe the blue lines are highlighting the beginning of a downtrend channel with the current price at about the middle of that channel. the dashed blue line shows the short term uptrend - longs won't want to see that violated. volume is low. but do check out the purple box - i drew this for a couple reasons. notice how the rsi became oversold here but the price could not beat the most recent high as highlighted by the horizontal red line. that is bearish to me. on the day that the most recent high was achieved, a high number of shares traded hands, and the stock closed weak and continued down after that - this indicated distribution to me (high volume but not much stock movement at the top). otherwise it's meandering above the 50-day moving average and below the 200-day moving average. see something i missed?

ESRX and divergences

intaday post

ESRX is at resistance, and price (as it beats recent highs) is negatively diverging with rsi, slow stochastics, and macd and macd histogram. bulls got volume in their corner. one to keep an eye on.

third circle to the rescue - HAL and the power of trend lines

intraday post

these two charts of HAL demonstrate the power of trend lines and trend line support. it's significant when these trend lines get broken - so keep monitoring this one. check out the volume for today so far, too!

HAL - longer term - third circle to the rescue!

HAL - shorter term

short watch list

today's volume sucked... it's late, here's my watch list for tomorrow - let me know if you have any questions about why these are short candidates or what i am waiting for before i actually go short...

ATHR

BBD

ENER

JBHT

JOYG

LRCX

MBT

fyi - my bracket

doing well so far... click to get big.

friday watchlist, railroads and click to get big

update friday 11:53am - call on railroads not working out bad so far...

hmm, i am a little surprise today at the lack of volume and follow through today in the markets considering the blast up we experienced yesterday. maybe it will come tomorrow/friday. at any rate, it doesn't say much for the bulls. that's why the watchlist i am presenting tonight is dominated by short candidates. big surprise, right?

AAPL - watch to make sure how AAPL opens up and behaves relative the red highlighted resistance line and the thin blue uptrend line... also notice the decreasing volume.

ATHR has fallen below the blue highlighted trend line and has retraced to its underside.

NVDA - the red box here highlights the candle and volume from wednesday march 14 when we saw such strength and volume in overall market. the volume here isn't so bad, and the price action is horrible. NVDA is now trading under its 200-day moving average.

NYX - this stock is no stranger to us... again pay attention to the red box highlighting wednesday's and thursday's action - not so hot compared to the rest of the market...

and finally i am going to present 3 charts of railroad stocks. they too are were lame relative to the overall markets. they have enjoyed a nice run up over the last many months so maybe it's time they give back some of those gains.

BNI

CSX

UNP

RVBD - intraday chart

update - RVBD has kept going down all day...

RVBD dropped out of its trading range today... check back with it at the end of the day to see where it closes and the final volume tally. see all RVBD posting charting here.

NYX - another trend line failure, et al

these are mid-day charts so double check where they closed for the day...

we'll have to monitor this one - no new recent low made today as it bounced up off of support, but at the open it did gap down below the uptrend line.

NVDA fell below the 200-day moving average on decent volume...

trend line failures + chart request

these are mid-day charts so double check where they closed for the day...

i will be updating this post throughout the day - so check back often... also, if there are any charts you'd like to see, let me know.

LEH - nice volume!

ATI - keep your eye on it - it looks ready perhaps to fail again at the long term uptrend line - the yellow box discloses trend line details, and don't forget to review my previous post making the case for shorting steel.

ALL - more failing at the long term uptrend line! see all previous posting and charting on ALL here.

AAPL - potential to fail at the trend line - keep your eye on on the action in the red circle... the blue box highlights the gap down that has been filled. see all previous posts and charting on AAPL here.

BBD has behaved according to plan [see all previous BBD posting/charting here]. gap resistance highlighted by the blue box came into effect. also notice the negative divergence between price and volume highlighted by the red lines.

JOYG -red lines show negative price and volume divergence. a break of the short term trend line on decent volume could be a short signal. CAT is weak too...

OSG - here we see gap resistance at work, pathetic volume at the peak of the bounce, and finally this is good example of support/resistance lines originating at moving average crossovers [see this post] - the green line was drawn when the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average (green circle). this line provided support before - will it hold this time?

RIMM opened up below the 50-day moving average today and at the time of this posting was still below. it hasn't been crashing with the rest of the market today - so that's one feather in the bullish camp. watch it here - its sitting on a short term trend line highlighted in blue.

anyone here have a blackjack?

i just got one from work and trying to set it up now... any tips or good tricks would be appreciated - thanks!

back to work - price and volume on the indexes up first...

we've been tracking price and volume on the indexes since plunge tuesday 27 feb 2007, and just as i expected - the indexes have moved higher on lower volume - not a good sign. but anything's possible. at any rate, i've been very busy loading and installing drywall for my home renovation, but the frequency and ferocity is going to pick back up starting now... all the best!

coloring the QID > more price and volume mechanics > trend lines > sup/resist lines

the volume trend and explosion alone are impressive... is there anything predictive going on here?

ESRX, trend lines and the mechanics of price and volume

price and volume can be very telling. keep in mind that any one day may or may not be meaningless in the grander scheme of things. its an ongoing, iterative, analytic process.

the significance of price and volume mechanics become more important as price approaches demonstrably significant trend lines, horizontal support/resistance lines and moving averages. for example consider the chart of ESRX below. the red circles highlight yesterday's candle and corresponding volume. note the high volume along with the failure of the price to break above the downtrend line or make any appreciable and significant movement, either up or down. yes, the stock closed down for the day, but the absolute change isn't great. this indicates large turnover of stock accompanied characterized by nearly balancing amounts of selling and buying. another word for this is distribution. sustained distribution over time or at key resistance levels is very bearish and helps to build the case for shorting. no back to ESRX - why such action here? there was news recently, but i don't follow that too hard. for better or worse, i prefer to listen to the charts - but that's just me. in all honesty, i am slacking in my ability to appreciate the fundamentals. at any rate, failure to break above or below the long term downtrend line will be significant - keep it on your radars!

chart request > BOOM

update friday - nice gap above the 200-day moving average on the open
as always, click image to see a larger version - thanks!

volume valium?

pretty straight forward here >

a closer look at URME

• the red circles show URME's most recent high - notice the underwhelming volume
• the red line above the rsi indicator demonstrates negative divergence
• the red candle in the blue circle is a huge bearish engulfing candlestick pattern - and just look at the volume below! for a candlestick like this to really be considered a bearish engulfing one, it should occur at the top of an uptrend - just like this one.
  

making the case for shorting steel

steel has been one strong sucker lately, but i believe we can see some cracks in its armor (no pun intended). please consider the following and then get back to me... thanks.

AKS

• first check out the crappy gapping around here at the top in the red circle. tops are often plagued by squirrelly action like this
• for the last few days or so, notice the negative divergence between price and volume - as price is gapping up, the volume is decreasing
• with an indicator like rsi, we like to see the rsi go up with price, and a divergence like in this case often signal tops, or temporary tops before pullbacks, corrections, or what have you

ATI

• check out the red circles - they show ATI making a new high on horrible volume
  
• the blue circle shows that same crappy gapping
• finally, with both volume and rsi, we see negative divergence with price
  

X

• green circle shows bounce off of short term trend line; however, the red circles highlight falling below that line and then 2 failed attempts at breaking back above it before gapping down
• the purple circles show new high on horrible volume
• don't forget the crappy gapping in the blue circle
• and finally don't forget your negative divergences
  

ok, now back to charting... [to be updated throughout the day]

as i come accros good charts, i will be posting here, so check back throughout the day...

$VIX and the power of trend lines - i haven't looked at the $VIX in quite some time, but a while back i drew that red downtrend line before that final spike highlighted by the blue circle ever existed. that spike resulted from tuesday 27 feb 2007 plunge. for my charting i use the basic/free version of prophet.net java charts - the application saves your drawn trend lines and extends them out to infinity for you, so over time, as days and price action accumulate, you can see how they react to or ignore these lines. check out how the $VIX ran right up to that trendline and bounced down - pretty predictive, right? you can bet that if the $VIX breaks through this downtrend line and holds above it, the markets will be much less complacent.

ISSC - it's rare that i post long suggestions, but this chart is a beauty, and i will follow it just to see how it develops. again, breaking through the blue line and holding it is key for entering this position long. on the flip side, if the stock fails here, it most likely becomes a great short candidate.

would you short the breakout? - see what kirk means in his post over at the kirk report

excited about a couple things tonight!

• the indexes posted ugly candles today. for most of the day, up until about 3:19pm, in fact, everything looked pretty good. however, as you know, they all closed lower than they opened. keep this in mind too - volume again was relatively low, just like yesterday. that means that for like 99% of the day the markets were up on light volume. who was buying? did the volume pick up as the indexes dropped for the last 40 minutes? i am not sure.

• i am also excited because i got tim knight's new book in the mail today. i have learned a lot by frequenting his blog, so naturally i have high expectations for this new piece of literature.

• finally, i am going to see the band clinic tonight - should be a great show, and i just found out that it's sold out. hopefully the bar won't be too crowded...