BWLRF - requested chart

the first chart of BWLRF shows the stock for the last 6 months. the blue box highlights the very recent break above the 1.84 horizontal resistance on big volume. this looks pretty bullish to me. the ascending rsi and sto seem to indicate strength over this same period. holding this new level will be key.

the next chart below shows the BWLRF's entire history. from this chart we can see that the $2 is critical too. this stock topped out at $2 when it first debuted. then, as the red box on the left side of the chart highlights, the stock broke out above its ipo highs but only briefly. just now its retesting this $2 level. as the shorter term chart above indicates, it looks strong. breaking above $2 on big volume will be key for not breaking down again.

if you got'em, make your chart requests

i am too busy and exhausted to be authoring blog posts these days, but it's only temporary. however, for the time being, please feel free to request a chart analysis for any stocks of interest. i can find time to do that. thanks and keep it real!

trend line failures + chart request

these are mid-day charts so double check where they closed for the day...

i will be updating this post throughout the day - so check back often... also, if there are any charts you'd like to see, let me know.

LEH - nice volume!

ATI - keep your eye on it - it looks ready perhaps to fail again at the long term uptrend line - the yellow box discloses trend line details, and don't forget to review my previous post making the case for shorting steel.

ALL - more failing at the long term uptrend line! see all previous posting and charting on ALL here.

AAPL - potential to fail at the trend line - keep your eye on on the action in the red circle... the blue box highlights the gap down that has been filled. see all previous posts and charting on AAPL here.

BBD has behaved according to plan [see all previous BBD posting/charting here]. gap resistance highlighted by the blue box came into effect. also notice the negative divergence between price and volume highlighted by the red lines.

JOYG -red lines show negative price and volume divergence. a break of the short term trend line on decent volume could be a short signal. CAT is weak too...

OSG - here we see gap resistance at work, pathetic volume at the peak of the bounce, and finally this is good example of support/resistance lines originating at moving average crossovers [see this post] - the green line was drawn when the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average (green circle). this line provided support before - will it hold this time?

RIMM opened up below the 50-day moving average today and at the time of this posting was still below. it hasn't been crashing with the rest of the market today - so that's one feather in the bullish camp. watch it here - its sitting on a short term trend line highlighted in blue.

chart request > BOOM

update friday - nice gap above the 200-day moving average on the open
as always, click image to see a larger version - thanks!

chart request follow-up - RIMM

RIMM may be good for an intraday or 2-day short scalp - the sucker sure is volatile, but as for any medium- to longer-term short position, i'd still like to see a test of recent highs on light volume.

consider that RIMM was down hard on ok volume on friday - if markets bounce, even a little on monday, RIMM will probably follow -and that would be a good thing for the "real" short setup that i think is yet to come.

red flags

• RIMM just seems to be too high and blackberries are boring - palm treos, blackjacks, motorola Qs and iPhones are where it's at. also, are we witnessing distribution up here? i am no expert on recognizing distribution, but we are seeing lots of share turnover without much upside to the stock. if not distribution, it could be consolidation, but there is something sketchy about this. also, notice the super-long term negative divergence between price and volume, at least for the spikes.
  

• the most recent big volume days are bearish

• failed breakout?

• is this longer term uptrend line break significant?

• finally, RIMM recently fell below th 50-day moving average on higher volume than when it more recently popped back up above it (sorry no chart)

would like to see

• another test of the recent highs on low/pathetic volume

or

• break of the 50-day moving average since we are all the way up and it's not too far away (obviously)
  

weekend chart request

before the open on monday morning i will be posting my stock watchlist and charts for next week. also, feel free to request charts for your own stocks of interest in the comments section. and what do you think - up or down today and next week? share your thoughts - thanks!

chart request follow up - BOOM

update 947am thursday 3/1 - BOOM gapped down. next support for BOOM = 50-day moving average = 29.42ish. it seems to have bounced there for the moment.

BOOM before tuesday 27 february 2007 - after the close on monday i posted an analysis and chart of BOOM (click the underlined phrase to see that analysis).

so have yesterday and today change BOOM's chartscape? if we zoom out a bit we get see the following:

• the green circle highlights the april 2006 all time high
• the top red line is the downtrend line that was put in place in early september
• the purplish circle highlights BOOM's initial aversion to breaking above this
• downtrend line as the top of the previous gap (thin top reddish line) provides
• resistance (also notice the low volume at this time in the next chart)
• after the purplish circle, you can see BOOM finally breaks above the resistance and the red downtrend line
• the blue circle highlights yesterday and today

now, let's zoom back in

• the red circle contains yesterday's dow plunge candle and today's candle - notice how the corresponding daily volumes aren't necessarily low, but they aren't anywhere near the volume of the three previous trading days
• the two previous trading days in the blue and green circles represent the day of a post-market close earnings release and the day after earnings release, respectively. the huge volume coupled with price action that went relatively nowhere suggests distribution (or high turnover of stock, perhaps as smart or big money is unloading to those who want to play long the earnings and the explosive potential of BOOM)
• the day after earnings (the green circle), the price peaks but the stock closes down and weak for the day on huge volume
• the following day and the huge down candle represent heavy selling on less volume than the two previous days. the candle breaks the very short term uptrend line. why the big down day? i am not sure - the previous days' distribution is one reason - no one to buy, and perhaps there were some sector dynamics at play as well.
• again, the red circle contains yesterday and today. yesterday BOOM gapped down back to underneath the long term thick red downtrend line (discussed above). this represents a failed breakout for BOOM above this line earlier. BOOM also gapped down into that thin reddish line gap zone.
• on the bullish side, however, BOOM is being supported by the 200-day moving average (thin blue line underneath the body of the candles in the red circle, and these candles have closed above the purple short term uptrend line

so what does all this mean? well, i would monitor for the next couple days. BOOM is pretty well backed into a corner here so chances are, the next day or so is going to give us a strong indication. the following scenarios are possible:

bullish scenario - on thursday and after, BOOM opens anywhere above the purple uptrend line and holds that line, preferably closing above the thick red downtrend line and the thin reddish top of the gap zone line... it accomplishes that, however, there is more overhead resistance above (e.g., the bottom of that big downward candle)

bearish scenario - on thursday and after, BOOM gaps down and opens below the 200-day moving average and below that short term purple uptrend line, and closes the day below them. this to me would seem to indicate more downward motion.

either way it will be interesting...

any chart requests? and intraday fibonacci retracement lines on the dow

if you'd like to see how i might interpret a stock you are interested in, please feel free to make a request in the comments section.

as for finding short candidates under these conditions, i am scanning for stocks that didn't participate in today's bounce. the dow closed the day up over 50 points - which stocks closed in the red or relatively unchanged? LEH did, and i am sure there are others. relative weakness may be the key, at least for now.

yesterday's huge drop has pushed many of the stocks on my watch list very close to critical 50- and 200-day moving averages as well as critical support and uptrend lines. in my opinion, today's action doesn't say much about where may be going so its still a wait-and-see situation out there...

on days like this (big drops and potential dead cat bouncing) i like to follow the action with the added insight provided by fibonacci retracement lines

taking chart requests

please feel free to make requests for charts you'd like to see and commentary you'd like to read...