21 March 2007
BOOM chart update
BOOM - there's not a whole lot to grip on to here - but that may just be me. others may see a whole lot more. i am thinking that maybe the blue lines are highlighting the beginning of a downtrend channel with the current price at about the middle of that channel. the dashed blue line shows the short term uptrend - longs won't want to see that violated. volume is low. but do check out the purple box - i drew this for a couple reasons. notice how the rsi became oversold here but the price could not beat the most recent high as highlighted by the horizontal red line. that is bearish to me. on the day that the most recent high was achieved, a high number of shares traded hands, and the stock closed weak and continued down after that - this indicated distribution to me (high volume but not much stock movement at the top). otherwise it's meandering above the 50-day moving average and below the 200-day moving average. see something i missed?
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3 comments:
walter - your TA is spot on. always is. i am learning so much from you. thanks so very much.
i am considering a few other fundemental issues. do these factor in?
the high you are tracing from was back when BOOM was one of those IBD badass mofo stocks. it was a total momo play back then. i think the high was artificial in that sense.
the most recent high of 35+ - BOOM broke above 37 the night earns were announced. they beat by a wide margin. the fall came when BOOM issued solid, but conservative guidance for 1Q as is their tendancy.
then that tuesday was the market melt down. stuck since then. as the market turned today, BOOM turned too.
there are three issues that keep me cautiously optimistic:
1) massive istituional accumulation - new stated ownership takes it to 76% ish. A new high. spot checks indicate that is still happening
2) they've resolved some supply issues, and doubled capacity to be monetized in the next quarter
3) in my spot checks i believe 1Q will surprise to the upside
not trying to rationalize...i'm trying to make a move in anticipation of a run.
thoughts?
jim, thanks for the kind words and your visits to the blog are appreciated.
regarding the more "fundamental" issues, i remember watching BOOM go up every day - and was watching it starting around $10...
the issues you list could very well drive the stock to the upside... keep in mind that the technical pictures i present here are limited. and the amount of capital risked and the stop limits placed reflect that. also, as you probably realize, my analysis leans more to the bearish side, and a more bullish one may be equally if not more valid. even though the stock hasnt really gone up recently, it hasnt gone down either.
i think everyone could probably agree that we probably wont have much of idea of what to expect until there is some major volume driving the price in one direction or the other. and that may not come until there is some catalyst, like earnings or some news. other than that, analyzing a sector or etf chart may help. any ideas?
the three issues that keep you optimistic sound good. besides that, though, i cant offer more idea about how to evaluate a position from a fundamental perspective - it's great that you are combining the two.
good luck!
hi walter. thanks again for your awesome blog. love it.
looks like BOOM is doing pretty well...
the 50 day is about to cross the 200 day. is that a bullish or bearish thing? maybe meaningless? i don't know much about this kind of thing.
there's a blog with a bunch of stuff on BOOM:
dynamicmaterials.blogspot.com
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