just for fun and to test my powers of assessing what the masses are thinking, i try to decide what everyone is expecting, or rather, how should the market behave and/or respond to recent developments. then, just assume that the opposite will happen. we've all done it - but it's actually much harder than it sounds. since i've been following markets and trading, one can rationalize anything that happens after the fact - just the investors in my 20/20 fund (they love the returns). at any rate, i understand that there are various market profiles or perspectives. the retailers vs the institutions vs the daytraders vs the hedge funds, etc - everyone has a different idea of what "should" happen next and why.
that being said, we think that most people were expecting some kind of bounce on friday, and they didn't get it. the dow, nasdog, s&p, etc all closed down. i do think some kind of "real" dead cat bounce will materialize on monday. although the analysis isn't too technical, the blue support line in the chart of the dow just looks like a good place to take a little rest before we continue. we have to work off some of the "oversoldness" of the market. now, if global markets are crashing sunday night (monday for the asian and european markets) - all bets are off. gapping down monday morning will make turn a delicate situation into a disaster.
oh yeah, any retracing would be on low volume.
thanks and the monday stock watchlist still to come!
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