dean baker | good comic

from the boston globe...

RIG stopped in its tracks?

i haven't check other oil services stocks, but this may turn into a good short... will continue to monitor.

v o l u m e

i try to observe stock trading volume in an attempt to judge the relative strength, weakness, conviction, etc of particular price movements, especially when these movements occur close to support, resistance and trend lines. that's why i will be checking out this article:

Volume, the Mystery
By Nigel Hawkes, President, Hawkeye Traders

Many thousands of words have been written on volume over the years, but its secrets elude many traders. Until a trader has a full understanding and appreciation of volume, though, it is my considered opinion that he or she will be making judgments that do not take into account the basic “supply and demand” of the market...

keep reading here.

SPX uptrend line pierced - on intraday basis for now

BWLRF - requested chart

the first chart of BWLRF shows the stock for the last 6 months. the blue box highlights the very recent break above the 1.84 horizontal resistance on big volume. this looks pretty bullish to me. the ascending rsi and sto seem to indicate strength over this same period. holding this new level will be key.

the next chart below shows the BWLRF's entire history. from this chart we can see that the $2 is critical too. this stock topped out at $2 when it first debuted. then, as the red box on the left side of the chart highlights, the stock broke out above its ipo highs but only briefly. just now its retesting this $2 level. as the shorter term chart above indicates, it looks strong. breaking above $2 on big volume will be key for not breaking down again.

if you got'em, make your chart requests

i am too busy and exhausted to be authoring blog posts these days, but it's only temporary. however, for the time being, please feel free to request a chart analysis for any stocks of interest. i can find time to do that. thanks and keep it real!

the approaching moments of truth: spx

i have to apoligize to my faithful readers - for a couple reasons i have not been posting as much as i would like to... for one, i have been busy with a home renovation that has gone on too long and we are nearing the end and its coming along great but it has been eating up a lot of my time lately. on top of that, the markets have been strong, and i've been letting the charts "breathe" so to say in an attempt to gain some insight about what comes next. that being said, the markets and the charts have been showing strength, and not much out there impresses me in terms of shorting. i am not fighting the the trend, or lack of it, and have been focusing then on the house and my day job. this next week will be interesting. i have two charts of the SPX for us to look at.

this first chart is a longer term view of the SPX and a major trend line highlighted in blue. we've fallen below it for a second time now. retracing to this line and busting above with volume indicates strength and would suggest perhaps more upside for some time to come. a retrace on low volume with no busting through or a busting through accompanied by a subsequent breakdown may be an additional red flag signaling the making of a top for some longer duration beyond the short term. the red circle highlights our approach up the underside of the blue uptrend line.

below is a shorter term view of the SPX. the last candle pictured is the thursday before the easter holiday - the low volume makes sense. monday and the reaction to friday's strong job numbers will start the week out with a bang. the strong job numbers suggest economic strength - i am no economist, but i imagine that low unemployment is bullish for a consumer-driven economy; however, strong numbers won't inspire the fed to cut rates. tight labor markets aren't necessarily good for company profits. anyway, back to the charts. check'em out and let me know if you have any thoughts.

half and half

i am impressed as any permabull out there as to the price action in the dow yesterday - it moved up nice, held its gains, and then closed above resistance. however, check out the volume in the chart below. just because volume wasn't awesome doesn't mean that the dow won't continue higher, but it's just one thing to keep in mind. i've been busy hanging drywall lately, so i haven't had much time to post here. but that's changing soon. i have some good charts lined up.